140万吨/年产能背后的氢能拐点:从示范破局到规模化起跑The Hydrogen Energy Turning Point Behind a Production Capacity of 1.4 Million Tons per Year: From Demonstration Breakthrough to Large-Scale Launch

1. Production capacity account: 270,000 tons completed, 1.13 million tons under construction, expansion curve is steep

In August 2026, the National Energy Administration released the "China Hydrogen Energy Development Report (2026)", providing a set of significant data: as of June 2026, China had established and was constructing renewable energy-based hydrogen production capacity exceeding 1.4 million tons per year, of which over 270,000 tons per year were completed and operational, and over 1.13 million tons per year were under construction. A key signal is that the under-construction capacity is more than four times the completed capacity, indicating that green hydrogen production capacity is still in a rapid expansion phase, with considerable potential for further development. From a global perspective, in 2025, global hydrogen production and consumption reached about 109 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3%. China and Europe together contributed more than 70% of the world's renewable energy-based hydrogen production capacity, making China a core variable in the global hydrogen landscape. Industry organizations estimate that in 2026, the total global hydrogen energy market reached 284 billion USD, a 22.9% increase over 231 billion USD in 2025, with the share of green hydrogen capacity exceeding 18% for the first time. In the first half of 2026, China's hydrogen energy market achieved a production value of 412 billion RMB, with the full-year expected to surpass 860 billion RMB.

II. Demand Ledger: Hard Constraints of 3 Million Tons of Green Hydrogen and 27.8 GW of Electrolyzers by 2026

The scale of demand is being redefined. According to Guojin Securities, based on the unit GDP carbon reduction targets in the 2026 government work report, green hydrogen demand is expected to reach 3 million tons by 2026, corresponding to driving about 27.8 GW of electrolyzers; during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, green hydrogen demand will climb to 65 million tons, corresponding to about 602 GW of electrolyzers. This calculation implies that the cumulative demand space for the electrolyzer sector over the next five years represents an order-of-magnitude increase compared to the current annual new installed capacity. It is worth noting that the demand release path is not evenly distributed but is being promoted according to the priority of "green shipping, hydrogen heavy trucks, chemicals, metallurgy, energy storage," with the least price-sensitive chemical and transportation scenarios breaking through first. Related research from China National Petroleum Corporation Planning Institute indicates that by 2030, the green hydrogen production capacity construction target is about 2 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons compared to 2025. The dilemma in resource-rich areas of "capable of production but unable to be transported" is being addressed through on-site conversion of green hydrogen.

3. Equipment Accounts: 12.8GW Shipments and 61% Global Market Share Cost Logic

The equipment side is a window to observe industry maturity. Industry statistics show that in the first half of 2026, China's electrolyzer shipments reached 12.8GW, accounting for 61% of global shipments. The cost of alkaline electrolyzers has dropped to 1,480 RMB/kW, a 12% decrease compared to 2025. The combination of cost reduction and scale expansion allows China to dominate the global electrolyzer supply landscape. In terms of company market value, the top three hydrogen sector companies are Weichai Power (231.99 billion RMB), Sungrow Power Supply (227.95 billion RMB), and Baofeng Energy (173.947 billion RMB). The combined market value of these three companies accounts for 61.90% of the top 10 total market value, indicating that industry capital is beginning to concentrate at the top. On the storage and power generation coupling side, the nationwide hydrogen energy storage power station capacity completed and put into operation in 2025 is about 150 MW/h, and it is expected to increase to 300 MW/h in 2026, an increase of 100%. Hydrogen energy's role in the power system is extending from emergency backup to long-duration storage.

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, and Chengdu-Chongqing four major demonstration city clusters gather more than 60% of the country's hydrogen energy industry chain enterprises, highlighting the regional cluster effect.

4. Scenario account: the consumption and export of three lines—transportation, chemical, and metallurgy—advance simultaneously.

Downstream utilization is the final mile for green hydrogen to shift from 'capacity' to 'value.' In the transportation sector, by 2025, nearly 8,000 fuel cell vehicles will be promoted, over 10 hydrogen-based fuel ships will be put into operation, and more than 30 hydrogen-powered drones will be available; the number of fuel cell heavy trucks will exceed 24,000, and the penetration rate of hydrogen fuel cell systems in commercial vehicles is expected to reach 3.2%, marking the substantial promotion period of hydrogen energy transportation. In the industrial sector, the operational production capacities of green ammonia and green methanol will reach 700,000 tons/year and 380,000 tons/year, respectively, becoming important outlets for large-scale utilization of green hydrogen; hydrogen metallurgy demonstrations are accelerating, with 7 domestic 10,000-ton-level hydrogen-based direct reduction iron projects already launched, with a total planned annual capacity of 1.8 million tons. In addition, about 620 hydrogen refueling stations have been built nationwide, and over 350 km of pure hydrogen pipelines are in operation, with the steady progress of infrastructure providing a foundation for multi-scenario demonstration and verification.

5. Assessment: The critical leap from 'policy-driven' to 'cost-driven'

Integrating four clues—production capacity, demand, equipment, and application scenarios—the hydrogen energy industry is at a turning point, moving from technical demonstration and exploration to large-scale commercialization. There are three core judgments: first, whether the cost of green hydrogen can steadily drop to the replacement range of gray hydrogen (currently, the production cost of green hydrogen in Inner Mongolia has been controlled at 17 to 20 yuan per kilogram, only 60% of the national average), which is the prerequisite for mass adoption in chemical and metallurgical scenarios; second, the nominal capacity of electrolyzers has exceeded 25 GW/year, far exceeding the real demand of about 8 to 10 GW in 2026, and the temporary overcapacity will accelerate industry reshuffling; third, overseas markets are becoming a new growth curve for absorbing capacity and realizing technology dividends, with overseas electrolyzer exports reaching 321.25 MW in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of more than 1600%. For investors and industry players, the next stage of competition will shift from 'who can receive subsidies' to 'who can deliver reliable equipment at the lowest LCOH (levelized cost of hydrogen)'.