《报告》：SAF已进入规模化商业应用阶段 中国绿色燃料产能约800万吨"Report": SAF has entered the stage of large-scale commercial application, China's green fuel production capacity is approximately 8 million tons

On October 17, Shell (China) Limited and the Energy Economics Research Institute of China National Offshore Oil Corporation jointly released the report "Cycles and Prospects of Global and Chinese Green Fuels: A Long Voyage After Ups and Downs" in Beijing. The report focuses on three major products: green methanol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). It conducts research on topics such as the establishment of standards, conditions for industrial scale advantages, commercial progress and economics, development bottlenecks, and future outlook, aiming to provide industry participants with reference for identifying opportunities and risks and formulating medium- and long-term strategic plans. The report suggests that China's abundant and diverse biomass resources, low-cost green electricity, localization of key equipment, existing chemical systems, and low-cost financing environment jointly constitute a systematic advantage for the large-scale development of green fuels. With the coordinated integration of resources, energy, equipment, chemical systems, and financial support, it is possible to form an industry chain model that is replicable, cost-reducing, financeable, and scalable.

From a global market perspective, the demand structure for green fuels is still dominated by traditional biofuels. Data shows that in 2025, the global production of green fuels is about 164 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; among them, biofuel ethanol and biodiesel together account for 98.3%; the demand for sustainable aviation fuel is about 2.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.7%.

By the end of 2025, China had built a total green fuel production capacity of about 8 million tons per year of oil equivalent, with application scenarios covering shipping, aviation, and land transport. Among them, green methanol is 380,000 tons per year, SAF about 1.7 million tons per year, green ammonia 700,000 tons per year, and biodiesel 3 million tons per year; China's green methanol and green ammonia production capacities account for about 60% and 80% of the global total, respectively.

The report points out that SAF has taken the lead in entering the stage of large-scale commercial application, and under the promotion of international aviation emission reduction policies, it has formed a relatively clear market demand and industrial foundation; green methanol is currently in the stage of commercial introduction and rapid scaling, relying on the decarbonization demand of shipping and relatively mature industrial chain conditions, and is expected to become one of the fastest-growing categories in the future; green ammonia, with dual attributes as a zero-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier, has broad potential in shipping, chemical, and energy storage and transportation fields, but its large-scale development still depends on low-cost green electricity, green hydrogen supply, and the improvement of storage and transportation systems.

Cost remains the primary constraint. According to the report, there is a significant gap between current green fuels and traditional fossil fuels. Taking green methanol as an example, the current price of fossil methanol products is about 2,400 RMB per ton. Based on electrolysis and biomass routes, the cost of green methanol is 30% to 150% higher than that of fossil fuels. Overall, green fuels face three major challenges: economics, infrastructure, and standards systems, among which economics is the primary constraint.

The report points out that the energy industry is at a historical opportunity to transition from a traditional system to a low-carbon system. The development of the green liquid fuel industry requires collaborative innovation across the industrial chain and also a deep integration of international experience with local practice. Qu Xuemei, Executive Vice President of Shell Group, Chairman of Shell China Group, and President of Shell Lubricants Northeast Asia, stated that there is no single answer to energy transition, and industry progress also depends on cooperation from all parties. It requires open communication, pragmatic cooperation, and joint exploration by governments, enterprises, universities, research institutions, and industry partners. She hopes to leverage Shell's role as a bridge connecting China with the world.

Previously, on October 14, Shell and Tsinghua University held the 'Empowering Progress' cooperation forum, bringing together wisdom from government, industry, academia, and research to promote the exchange and mutual learning of global experience and Chinese practice. Over the past more than twenty years, the scientific research cooperation between Shell and Tsinghua University has gradually expanded from engine fuel research to areas such as biomass energy, electric power, and hydrogen energy.

[Source: China Business Journal]

[Editor: Xiao Neng]