可持续航空燃料出口订单排至2027年 原料成本认证三重约束待解Sustainable aviation fuel export orders are scheduled until 2027, with raw material costs, certification, and triple constraints yet to be resolved

Using restaurant waste oil as raw material, used cooking oil (UCO) can be refined into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Currently, domestic SAF export orders are booked up until 2027. On the other hand, the booming export market faces long-term constraints in raw material supply, costs, and regulatory certification.

Liu Yaoming, Vice President of the China Association for Private Science and Technology Promotion and Chairman of the Bioenergy Branch, pointed out at the 3rd China·Shijiazhuang (Shenze) Bioenergy Industry Development Conference and National Green Energy Industry Summit that the industry needs to balance the demand for overseas orders with the future domestic civil aviation self-use demand, in order to solidify the foundation of the local industry chain.

Emission reduction in the aviation industry is widely regarded as an inevitable trend. Civil aviation, along with power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and paper, is listed as one of China's eight key emission industries. The combined carbon emissions of these eight industries account for about 75% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions. China has established the world's largest carbon emission trading market, which has successfully included four industries: power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preliminary preparations for expanding the inclusion of the civil aviation industry, with civil aviation expected to enter the national carbon market by 2027. SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) is an alternative aviation fuel made from waste and renewable resources, meeting safety, airworthiness, and sustainability certification standards. It can be blended with conventional jet fuel in proportions and does not require modification of aircraft engines.

The pressure for carbon reduction in global civil aviation continues to intensify. The International Civil Aviation Organization has set a target for the aviation industry to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050; the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) will enter its second mandatory phase in 2027. Airlines operating eligible international routes that exceed their carbon emissions can choose to use SAF or eligible emission reduction offsets to comply. The European Union's Sustainable Aviation Fuel regulations are increasingly tightening mandatory blending requirements. Starting from 2025, the minimum SAF blending ratio for jet fuel on flights departing from EU airports will be 2%, combined with quota control under the EU Emissions Trading System, placing airlines under multiple constraints. Qian Jing, senior engineer at the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development Research Center of the Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation in China, points out that limited by traditional technologies and management methods, the civil aviation industry's options for emission reduction are limited. Revolutionary reduction technologies such as large electric aircraft and hydrogen-powered aircraft are unlikely to be commercially scaled in the short term. SAF, as one of the core pathways for decarbonizing the civil aviation industry, is deeply aligned with the national 'dual-carbon' goals.

Domestic SAF fueling is currently at the pilot stage. Zhang Rigang, Deputy General Manager of Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, introduced that 1% blending pilots have been conducted on a regular basis at four airports in China: Beijing Daxing, Chengdu Shuangliu, Zhengzhou Xinzheng, and Ningbo Lishe, cumulatively supporting more than 30,000 flights. The application of SAF is moving from demonstration verification to normalization. However, no mandatory SAF fueling policy has been issued in China yet, and airlines are not strongly willing to use it. Most domestically produced SAF is currently exported overseas. Under policy guidance, capacity is growing rapidly. According to public data, six domestic production companies have passed airworthiness certification, with a total capacity of 1.45 million tons per year, and several other companies will submit airworthiness certification applications successively.

Raw materials and industrial support are gradually forming clusters. Hebei is an agricultural province with abundant resources such as agricultural and forestry straw, livestock and poultry manure, kitchen waste, and forestry residues. Shenze County in Shijiazhuang City has established stable cooperative relationships with nearly a thousand kitchen waste treatment enterprises nationwide, recycling more than 1 million tons of various waste fats and oils annually, making it the distribution center for waste fats and oils in North China. In the 1960s, Shenze County started with oil and fat daily chemical processing. In recent years, it has gathered waste fat refining and processing enterprises, from the landing of key SAF projects such as Zhongneng Yida (Hebei) New Energy Co., Ltd. with a capacity of 400,000 tons, to the introduction of international technologies like Denmark's Topsoe. The area has gradually moved from single coarse oil and fat processing to coordinated industrial chain support. In September this year, the Hebei Shenze Economic Development Zone received the EU Next Generation certification, obtaining a green pass to the EU market in environmental compliance, carbon management, data compliance, and sustainability.

It is worth noting that there is an upper limit to the traditional waste oil route. Liu Yaoming stated that almost all SAF production in China uses the HEFA route, mainly with waste oils as raw materials. The current supply volume can support about 1.5 million tons of raw material usage and about 3 million tons of waste oil exports. According to forecasts from the International Air Transport Association and other organizations, by 2030, the waste oil resources available for SAF production will basically reach a balance. Although there is still room for improvement in the domestic recycling system, a long-term supply gap objectively exists. Zhang Rigang believes that the SAF industry can also develop multiple technological routes, such as producing synthetic aviation fuel using green electricity to generate green hydrogen. The European Union has already set a separate mandatory blending ratio for aviation fuel produced with green electricity. At the same time, biofuels can also extend to produce green methanol, bio-natural gas, and other products to support shipping emission reduction.

The constraints in the industry are mainly reflected in three areas: safety, certification, and cost. Qian Jing stated that civil aviation must maintain an absolute safety baseline, and all SAF products used in civil aviation must undergo complete airworthiness verification and approval. At present, HEFA synthetic hydrocarbon products should be blended with conventional aviation kerosene, with a maximum blending ratio of 50%. The management policies and procedures regarding aviation fuel in civil aviation have been revised, further promoting the development of the SAF industry.

Strict sustainability rules in overseas markets set barriers for exports. Zhang Rigan admitted that nearly half of the global SAF usage is for compliance with the EU carbon market, only a small portion is used for international aviation carbon offsetting and emission reduction plan compliance, and 40% of SAF does not have compliant carbon certification, mainly due to difficulties in full-chain traceability, complex cross-border feedstock tracking, and poor alignment between certification rules and carbon market systems. High costs are also a key bottleneck for large-scale promotion. Liu Yaoming stated that SAF produced via the HEFA route costs and sells at two to three times, or even five times, that of traditional jet fuel. In overseas markets, the premium is mainly offset through either charging passengers a green fuel surcharge or relying on government subsidies. In the long term, with process iterations, improved product yields, and reduced energy consumption and operating costs per ton, costs have room to decrease.

The price mechanism of the domestic market is still being improved. Zhang Rigang pointed out that although SAF can reduce about 2.8 tons of carbon dioxide per ton, the revenue from carbon quota offsets can offset part of the price difference, but the overall cost is still relatively high. If SAF is later included in the domestic CCER methodology, its emission reduction value is expected to be linked to the domestic carbon market. Liu Yaoming stated that due to the fact that domestic demand has not yet been initiated, more than 90% of currently produced domestic SAF is sold to the European market, with a small amount supplied to domestic pilot scenarios; in terms of development direction, the policy guidance is to prioritize domestic use of SAF, and once domestic demand increases, supply will tilt towards the local market.

[Source: China Energy News]

[Editor: Xiao Neng]