巴西未来十年生物燃料领域预计投资264亿美元Brazil is expected to invest 26.4 billion US dollars in the biofuel sector over the next ten years
巴西矿业和能源部与能源研究公司近日发布《2036年能源扩张十年规划》。规划显示，2027年至2036年，巴西生物燃料领域预计投资1420亿雷亚尔（约合264亿美元），推动乙醇、生物柴油、生物甲烷和可持续航空燃料等产业发展。
乙醇是这一投资周期的核心品种。规划预计，未来十年巴西乙醇产量将以年均2.5%的速度增长，由416亿升增至2036年的531亿升。增长主要由玉米乙醇扩产带动，到规划期末，玉米乙醇预计占乙醇供应量的40%，甘蔗乙醇占比约为60%。利用植物残余物生产的第二代乙醇，预计年产量将达到6亿升，原料来源从糖蜜和甘蔗汁扩展到农业剩余物。
生物柴油方面，2036年巴西总需求量可能达到147亿升。其中，按常规柴油中掺混15%生物柴油的比例测算，强制掺混需求将达到127亿升，掺混政策仍是需求的主要支柱。
生物甲烷与航空燃料被列为重点方向。规划预计，天然气行业的减碳目标可能从2026年的0.5%提高至2036年的10%。巴西已公布的可持续航空燃料项目，到2036年可能实现年产36亿升，同年绿色柴油产量预计为8.5亿升。
从投资方向看，可持续航空燃料和绿色柴油项目预计投资390亿雷亚尔（约合72.49亿美元），生物甲烷项目预计投资311亿雷亚尔（约合57.81亿美元），玉米及其他谷物乙醇项目预计投资253亿雷亚尔（约合47.03亿美元），新建甘蔗种植园预计需要241亿雷亚尔（约合44.80亿美元）。四项合计占据规划投资的主要部分，原料端与加工端的投入同步铺开。
规划还分析了生物源碳捕集与封存、低排放氢能和合成燃料等领域的发展机遇，认为相关技术有助于降低工业和交通运输领域的碳排放。这些方向与生物燃料形成互补，共同指向难减排部门的脱碳路径。
公开信息显示，扩大生物燃料生产是巴西能源转型战略的一部分，旨在发挥农业和工业优势，扩大可再生能源供给，并增强能源安全。以甘蔗、玉米等农作物为原料的燃料体系，也使巴西在液体燃料替代方面具备区别于电力主导型转型路径的特点。
The Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy and the Energy Research Company recently released the "Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan for 2036." The plan indicates that from 2027 to 2036, Brazil is expected to invest 142 billion reais (approximately 26.4 billion USD) in the biofuel sector, promoting the development of industries such as ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane, and sustainable aviation fuel.
Ethanol is the core product in this investment cycle. The plan projects that over the next decade, Brazil's ethanol production will grow at an average annual rate of 2.5%, increasing from 41.6 billion liters to 53.1 billion liters by 2036. The growth will mainly be driven by the expansion of corn ethanol, which by the end of the planning period is expected to account for 40% of ethanol supply, while sugarcane ethanol will make up about 60%. Second-generation ethanol produced from plant residues is expected to reach an annual output of 600 million liters, with raw material sources expanding from molasses and sugarcane juice to agricultural residues.
In terms of biodiesel, Brazil's total demand may reach 14.7 billion liters by 2036. Among this, based on a 15% blend of biodiesel in conventional diesel, the mandatory blending demand will reach 12.7 billion liters, and the blending policy remains the main pillar of demand.
Biomethane and aviation fuel are listed as key areas. The plan anticipates that the carbon reduction target for the natural gas industry may increase from 0.5% in 2026 to 10% in 2036. For Brazil's announced sustainable aviation fuel projects, annual production could reach 3.6 billion liters by 2036, and that year green diesel production is expected to be 850 million liters.
From the perspective of investment direction, sustainable aviation fuel and green diesel projects are expected to receive an investment of 39 billion reais (approximately 7.249 billion USD), bio-methane projects are expected to receive 31.1 billion reais (approximately 5.781 billion USD), corn and other grain ethanol projects are expected to receive 25.3 billion reais (approximately 4.703 billion USD), and the construction of new sugarcane plantations is expected to require 24.1 billion reais (approximately 4.48 billion USD). These four items together account for the main part of the planned investments, with inputs for raw materials and processing being deployed simultaneously.
The plan also analyzes development opportunities in fields such as biogenic carbon capture and storage, low-emission hydrogen, and synthetic fuels, suggesting that related technologies can help reduce carbon emissions in the industrial and transportation sectors. These directions complement biofuels and together point to decarbonization pathways for hard-to-abate sectors.
Public information shows that expanding biofuel production is part of Brazil's energy transition strategy, aiming to leverage agricultural and industrial advantages, increase the supply of renewable energy, and enhance energy security. Fuel systems using crops such as sugarcane and corn as raw materials also give Brazil characteristics in liquid fuel substitution that are different from the electricity-dominated transition path.
[Source: Xinhua Finance]
[Editor: Xiao Neng]
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