3.54亿个绿证与3个月期限：可再生能源消费最低比重目标怎么考核354 million green certificates and a 3-month period: How to assess the minimum proportion target of renewable energy consumption

Zhuo Qiyan

On August 1, 2026, a new system came into effect. The "Implementation Measures for the Minimum Consumption Proportion Targets of Renewable Energy and the Responsibility Weight System for Renewable Energy Power Consumption," jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Ministry of Transport (Decree No. 42 of 2026), transformed the "minimum consumption proportion targets for renewable energy" from an industry initiative into a mandatory requirement. Two months later, the National Energy Administration announced the issuance and trading data of green certificates for August: 354 million green certificates were issued nationwide, a month-on-month increase of 15.75%; 60.55 million green certificates were traded nationwide, a month-on-month increase of 11.13% and a year-on-year increase of 25.18%. Placing the two sets of numbers together, the change in the nature of green certificates is now clear—they are no longer just environmental certificates voluntarily purchased by enterprises, but are becoming an annual "task" that certain industries must complete.

The core issue that Order No. 42 aims to address is the lack of responsibility on the consumer side. Over the past decade or so, the responsibility for the development of renewable energy has mainly fallen on the supply side: power generation companies build power plants, grid companies ensure consumption, and local governments bear the weight of authority. Apart from voluntarily purchasing green electricity and green certificates, the consumer side does not have clear institutional obligations. However, as renewable energy generation increases year by year, the pressure to absorb this energy continuously transmits throughout the system. If the consumer side does not develop stable and predictable green demand, the scale expansion on the supply side will sooner or later hit a ceiling. Order No. 42 shifts the focus from 'how much is generated' to 'how much is used,' precisely to fill this gap on the consumer side.

The institutional framework is divided into two lines. The first line is the minimum proportion target of renewable energy consumption for key energy-consuming industries: for the first batch of covered industries including electrolytic aluminum, steel, cement, polysilicon, and newly built data centers at national hub nodes, a minimum proportion of renewable energy in electricity consumption is set; at the same time, minimum proportion targets for non-electric consumption are proposed for scenarios such as heating and cooling, hydrogen/ammonia/alcohol production, and biofuels. The second line is the responsibility weight for renewable energy power consumption by provincial administrative regions, divided into total consumption responsibility weight and non-hydropower consumption responsibility weight, issued annually and evaluated by province. One line regulates enterprises, the other regulates provinces, together forming a dual-drive pattern of 'rigid obligations on the consumption side + localized responsibility on the consumption end.'

Why are the first batch of companies from these five industries? The answer lies in their electricity consumption characteristics and international competitive pressure. Electrolytic aluminum, steel, and cement are typical high-energy-consuming industries, with large electricity consumption, continuous production, and stable loads. Procuring green electricity once can leverage a considerable scale of consumption; polysilicon production itself is a highly energy-consuming process and is in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain. Producing polysilicon with green electricity means that downstream components can directly claim a lower carbon footprint; newly built data centers at national hub nodes are currently among the fastest-growing electricity demand types, and the proportion of green electricity consumption is becoming a core indicator for evaluating the green credentials of computing centers. Including these five types of entities in the assessment first captures both the existing scale and the direction of growth.

The key tool for assessment is the green certificate. According to Directive No. 42, the calculation of the minimum proportion target for electricity consumption is based on the green certificates corresponding to the electricity produced in the assessment year; non-electricity targets are mainly calculated based on heat. This means that enterprises have three paths to achieve the target: self-generated and self-used renewable electricity, obtaining green electricity through direct green power connections or green power trading, and directly purchasing green certificates. Among these, green certificates serve as the common credential that links all paths—regardless of where the green electricity comes from, the green certificate is ultimately used as the verifiable basis for compliance. This is also the institutional root of the fundamental change in the status of green certificates: in the past, buying green certificates was an "icing on the cake"; in the future, for listed enterprises, green certificates will be an "annual KPI."

The consequences of not completing the targets are written in detail. Order No. 42 clearly states that enterprises that fail to meet the minimum proportion targets must make up the shortfall within three months of the indicators being announced through methods such as green certificate trading; those who fail to do so within the deadline will be interviewed, publicly notified, and included in the credit record. The same applies at the provincial level: provinces that fail to meet the weighted targets must make up the shortfall with green certificates within three months; overdue cases will be interviewed and publicly notified, and the uncompleted weighted targets will be transferred to the next year, but in the last year of the five-year planning period, they cannot be transferred. These three progressive measures—making up within a deadline, interviews and public notifications, and credit records—form a complete closed loop, transmitting assessment pressure from the text of the document to enterprise decision-making and the routine work of provincial governments.

To support this assessment system, the supporting mechanisms will be intensively implemented in 2026. In May, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the National Data Administration jointly issued the "Guidelines for Accounting Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial)" (NDRC Energy [2026] No. 622), which clarified the accounting methods for non-fossil energy power consumption based on green certificate trading volumes at the provincial, municipal, and user levels, providing a methodological basis for including green certificates in carbon emission accounting. In June, the General Office of the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Organizing and Promoting the Issuance of Green Certificates for Renewable Energy Power Generation Projects Outside the Public Grid" (National Energy Administration General Office Qualification [2026] No. 60), promoting the issuance of green certificates for off-grid and on-site projects, prioritizing the assessment needs of key energy-consuming industry enterprises. In July, the China Green Certificate Price Index was released for the first time, providing the green certificate market with an open and continuous price signal. The three pieces of the puzzle—system, methodology, and price—were then put in place sequentially.

Grassroots implementation scenarios are also beginning to emerge. During the National Day holiday, the 'Green Power and Green Certificate Service Station' built by State Grid Bengbu Electric Power Company officially went into operation, providing local enterprises with one-stop green power and green certificate trading services, while also integrating virtual power plant resource aggregation. The emergence of this type of service station indicates that green power and green certificate trading is moving from the professional scenarios of exchanges and power sales companies down to everyday services that are easily accessible to ordinary enterprises. For listed electrolytic aluminum and steel companies, purchasing green certificates no longer requires complex channel coordination; a single service station can complete the entire process from consultation and trading to certificate aggregation. The extent of infrastructure coverage is determining the efficiency of implementing the assessment system.

The key next step is the green electricity consumption certification system. On August 26, 2026, the National Energy Administration clearly stated in the "Reply Letter to Proposal No. 05008 of the 14th Session of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference" that it has worked with the State Administration for Market Regulation to study and draft implementation opinions for the green electricity consumption certification system, promoting the standardized use of green certificates in scenarios such as green finance, green supply chains, and ESG information disclosure. The value of the certification system lies in turning "how much green electricity was consumed" from an internal enterprise ledger into a certificate that can be issued externally — when enterprises achieve their proportion targets, they can use the certification to demonstrate their green performance to financial institutions, downstream customers, and the capital market. With certification, green electricity consumption is transformed from a cost item into a measurable asset item.

From an international perspective, the pace of this system is not considered early. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism officially entered the taxation phase in January 2026, and the accounting of carbon emissions for exported products is becoming increasingly detailed, with the proportion of green electricity consumption directly affecting the carbon cost of exported products; international shipping, international textiles, and other industries are also tightening requirements on the green attributes of supply chains. For export-oriented enterprises, the linkage between green certificates and carbon accounting means that green electricity consumption not only affects domestic assessments but also directly impacts access to overseas markets. Order No. 42 advances domestic assessments and international rules on the same timeline, objectively helping enterprises to adapt in advance to global green trade rules.

From voluntary to mandatory, from advocacy to assessment, green certificates completed an attribute upgrade in 2026. 354 million issued, 60.55 million traded, an average annual price of 6.32 yuan—behind these numbers is a mechanism taking shape: using green certificates to account for renewable energy consumption, using proportional targets to underpin green demand, and locking compliance with a three-month term and a credit record. For listed electrolytic aluminum, steel, cement, polysilicon companies, and data center operators, 2026 is a year of adaptation; for the green certificate market, green power trading, and energy-carbon service industry, 2026 is the starting point for demand growth. The gears of the system have engaged, and next it depends on how each industry and each company turns its own gear.

(The information and data in the text are sourced from: the National Development and Reform Commission and four other departments' 'Implementation Measures for Minimum Proportion Targets of Renewable Energy Consumption and Responsibility Weight System for Renewable Energy Power Consumption' (2026, Order No. 42), China National Energy Administration's August 2026 green certificate issuance and trading data, National Energy Administration's 'Reply Letter to Proposal No. 05008 of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference' (August 26, 2026), the National Development and Reform Commission and five other departments' 'Guidelines for Accounting Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial)' (NDRC Energy [2026] No. 622), National Energy Administration Comprehensive Department's 'Notice on Organizing and Promoting the Issuance of Green Certificates for Renewable Energy Generation Projects in Non-Public Grids' (Guoneng Zong Tong Zizhi [2026] No. 60), and publicly available reports.)

[Research Supporting Institutions: Energy and Dual-Carbon Research Center of China Industrial Newspaper | China Energy Industry Development Network]