万劲松：推动“十五五”可再生能源扩量提质、可靠替代发展Wan Jinsong: Promoting Increased Quantity and Quality, and Reliable Substitution Development of Renewable Energy during the '15th Five-Year Plan'

Wan Jinsong, member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, published a signed article in the Economic Daily, proposing to steadfastly promote the expansion and quality improvement of renewable energy and reliable substitution development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and clarifying the 2030 targets for installed capacity, consumption, and electrification.

The article points out that since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China’s renewable energy has achieved historic leaps, building the world’s largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, and establishing the world’s largest and most complete renewable energy industry chain. As of June this year, China’s total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation reached 2.455 billion kilowatts, accounting for over 60%, of which cumulative wind and solar capacity was about 1.951 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly half. The installed capacity of solar power is basically on par with that of coal power. In the first half of the year, China’s renewable energy generation reached nearly 2 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of about 9% year-on-year, accounting for more than 40% of total power generation.

Wan Jinsong stated that during the '15th Five-Year Plan' period, China's energy and electricity consumption demand will continue to grow rapidly, making the tasks of ensuring safety and promoting transformation arduous. New energy has entered a new stage of full-scale market-oriented development, while the pressure for consumption is simultaneously increasing, and the industry faces unprecedented external constraints and internal challenges. The development of renewable energy must not only maintain reasonably increased quantities and continuously raise the share of clean energy supply, but also focus on effectively improving quality, enhancing safe and reliable substitution capabilities, accelerating the shift from 'whether there is' to 'how good it is,' and from 'supplementary energy' to 'primary energy.'

Regarding the main line of development, the article clarifies that 'expanding quantity' is the foundation, with the total renewable energy consumption expected to reach about 1.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2030, directly supporting the goal of a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption; 'improving quality' is the key, requiring renewable energy to innovate development methods, break through its own limitations, expand development autonomy, enhance supply reliability, and boost market competitiveness. Based on having 'stood up,' it is necessary to accelerate to being 'dependable,' so that traditional energy can be reduced in an orderly manner and phased out smoothly.

The evaluation criteria are also changing. The article suggests that as we enter a new stage of development, the assessment of the quality and effectiveness of renewable energy development will increasingly emphasize reliable substitution orientation: it will not only consider the incremental results of 'installed capacity,' but also the system value of being able to 'generate when needed and supply when necessary' during key periods; it will not only look at the growth of electricity generation on the supply side, but also the effectiveness of diverse substitutions for both electric and non-electric consumption on the demand side; it will not only observe technological progress continuously creating cost advantages, but also look at how price signals reflect supply-demand relationships and market acceptance.

The path focuses on electricity as the core and non-electric energy as the breakthrough. The electrification process in our country continues to accelerate, with the electrification rate of terminal energy consumption expected to reach 35% by 2030; by 2030, the total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation should reach about 3.5 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar power installed capacity exceeding 2.8 billion kilowatts. Currently, the use of renewable energy in non-electric forms accounts for less than 1% of our country's energy consumption, leaving significant room for improvement compared with the deep decarbonization needs of industries such as industrial and transportation sectors in terms of fuel, raw materials, and heat; by 2030, the total scale of renewable energy use in non-electric forms is expected to reach 150 million tons of standard coal, an increase of 1.5 times compared with 2025, with green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol moving from pilot exploration to large-scale implementation.

In terms of development requirements, the article proposes adhering to integrated convergence, diversified coordination, and efficient orderliness. It advocates for multi-energy complementary integration among different types of renewable energy and with other energy sources, integration of production and consumption, and integration along the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain; adhering to coordinated goals, coordinated power sources, coordinated grid and resources, and coordinated elements, while overall considering the relationship between high-quality development of renewable energy and the bottom-line guarantee of traditional energy, grid adjustment support, and land and sea resource assurance; placing greater importance on efficiency and benefits, and strengthening full lifecycle cost control and lean management of projects.

Regarding tasks and measures, the article also makes arrangements for optimizing the pattern of renewable energy development and utilization, requiring continuous enhancement of the intrinsic motivation and comparative advantages of renewable energy in market competition, promoting the formation of reasonable revenue per kilowatt-hour and returns per kilowatt-hour, improving industry operational efficiency, and driving the sustainable and healthy development of renewable energy.

[Source: Economic Daily]

[Editor: Xiao Neng]